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This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to win a great deal of cash from this week considering it is a smaller card and starts at 10:15am ET. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. I will try to receive my 2nd and 3rd chairs this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and toss 100 or so entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably have a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I don’t believe there are any money locks nowadays, so I wanted to bring a cash plan I use a great deal of the moment, which can be punting in money and accepting a reduction. I really don’t think Roxy gets the win here, but she is just $6.9k and I think she receives 15-minutes of action. I like the flooring that accompanies that and punting with her cheap price enables us to fit in a lot of the higher favorites with our other five spots. We do not need 6 wins in money games, so that I don’t think we will need to try for it. I enjoy playing money games safer and if I can lock in 25-35 points at a loss from Roxy in her cheap price I am totally ok with that. I look for 4 wins in money and over 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal every week. Let everyone else make the errors and just shoot for a score which may conquer 50 percent or more of this field.
GPP drama of this week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in fight for GPPs in my view and I like Overeem as one of my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so I would be amazed to see this move all 5 rounds. In addition, I think Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is levels ahead of him at the striking game. The sole shooter Oleinik has of winning on the toes is by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing entry. Other than those two outcomes, Overeem will smoke him on the feet. In addition, I believe Overeem can work his way back into his toes if he’s taken down and the longer Oleinik shoots takedowns the quicker he will gas outside. I like the -175 ITD lineup that comes with Overeem here and I think he gets a complete in around 1 or 2. That should provide us close to 100 DK points if not more, and I need that in a lot of my own GPP lineups.
Underdog drama of this week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no longer the underdog on the gambling line (-120) but DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they are released. We receive Fiziev here for $800 cheaper than Mustafaev and he’s preferred to get the win. I was very impressed with what I saw from this child and I concur with the line movement. I do think he gets the win here, but it is the DK worth that we would like to be sure to get exposure to the weekend. I believe he is a great play cash games with the present price and I hope to be overweight on him in GPPs too. We have to roster underdogs in our lineups and if we can use a favorite as among these”underdogs” I am usually on board for it.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of this week because of her $9.3k price tag. I do think she has the win here since I said earlier, I just don’t see the way she’ll pay off that salary without a finish. I really don’t see her shooting any takedowns in this match, and I do not want to rely on her getting knockdown points either. So, we’re only likely to be receiving 0.5 points each significant attack, and then the 30-point win bonus when she wins a choice. If this is true, we’d need her to property over 126 sig strikes just to secure more than 10x worth. I really don’t see that being true and I believe she likely scores 80-85 DK points at a decision triumph. At her wages, that won’t win anybody the large $25k. That’s the prize I am shooting for so that is why she’s my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 69-41 to get +237.39u (+$23,739) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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