UFC 214 BETTING CHEAT SHEET: ODDS ANALYSIS AND PREVIEW

When it won’t be the largest battle sports event of this summer, UFC 214 is certainly the largest MMA event of the entire year. In addition to the Jon Jones-Daniel Cormier rematch, the card features two extra title charms, contenders and enjoyable battles throughout.
Brad Taschuk of MMAOddsBreaker.com, takes a look at where the betting odds have proceeded for all 12 fights since opening lines (indicated in brackets) were published and he gives his ideas on each matchup. All lines are courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Jon Jones (-280) vs. Daniel Cormier (+220)
Jones was a -170 favorite first time these two scrapped and some naively anticipated the lineup would be similar this time around. But, it seems that Jones’ legal problems, run-in with USADA and layoff hasn’t had the impact anticipated on the line. It is difficult to blame bettors either, Cormier is now 38-years-old, has been through some tough battles since their first meeting, and Jones won each aspect of the first battle. Expect something similar – if not dominant – that time around.
Irrespective of how seriously he takes his preparation, Jones is the type of fighter that rises to the occasion like few others. He, this is the greatest event. Cormier is his biggest rival and he has the opportunity to regain the belt he never lost against him. That combination will result in a tremendous performance from Jones. Expect him to dispatch of Cormier and re-assert his dominance in the branch.
Tyron Woodley (-210) vs. Demian Maia (+160)
Much like the main event, this line hasn’t seen much movement. Given the contrasting styles, that’s not tough to believe. There is a contingent of individuals who think that Woodley will starch Maia with the first punch he yells. They might well be right. The other side of the coin is made up of people who believe that Maia can shut the space, latch onto Woodley such as he has so many others and only dominate with his grappling. They are right as well. Woodley’s inclination to back himself against the cage and perform counter-puncher is going to be his demise here. Maia is becoming so good at entering the clinch if not under pressure that he ought to have the ability to make Woodley miss once. Despite a high-level wrestler the likes of Woodley, after Maia gets his hands on you, that is a huge trouble.
The Brazilian’s capacity to initiate Jiu-Jitsu imports without hitting conventional takedowns is second to none (he has perfected the single leg to rear take) and Woodley being the type of man who likes to explode out of positions will only hurt him after that happens. It’s kind of astonishing that Maia by Sub pays an excess buck (+275 as of Thursday morning), since Woodley will not be able to survive 25 minutes of Maia engaging in the sort of fight he wishes to. The other choice is probably a fast Woodley KO (+350 for the champ in Round 1, by the way).
Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (-1200) vs. Tonya Evinger (+600)
This battle being bettable is dependent on which kind of bettor you’re. In case you have no issue throwing a huge line in a parlay, the Cyborg moneyline (at nearly -1400), or Cyborg ITD (almost -700) are nearly sure things. If that’s not really your style, neither will probably be placing nearly 2-to-1 on a prop such as Cyborg Round 1.
The only case I can make for a play relies on Evinger’s resilience. She’s taken damage in many of her struggles and persevered and she probably won’t return to conquer Cyborg in this one after a tough start, there is an outside shot she can endure five minutes. But even the costs for”Fight Begins Round two” and Cyborg Round 2 have dropped substantially (down to +150 and +450( respectively), which makes them less attractive even to someone who is always on the search for some round robin legs.
Robbie Lawler (-175) vs. Donald Cerrone (+135)
It is a shame this fight is occurring after both guys have apparently passed their peak in terms of durability, since a war with Lawler and Cerrone in their best are something to behold. This fight will return to space management and in-fight choices. Lawler would like to be inside, Cerrone wants to be outside. The difficulty for Cerrone is that Lawler’s constant pressure will gradually see him get indoors and at that point, expect Cerrone to be far too willing to oblige him the warfare he’s looking for. While that will give us the type of fight we would like to see, don’t expect it to finish well for Cerrone.

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