NASCAR at Bristol odds, picks 2019: Model says Kurt Busch surprises at Food City 500

The 2019 Food City 500 occurs on Sunday at mythical Bristol Motor Speedway. The green flag drops at two p.m. ET, and every corner counts due to the tight, steeply-banked track where passing is at a premium. Last week, Denny Hamlin grabbed his next success of this 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season at Texas Motor Speedway. He’s got a win at Bristol under his belt and is listed at 14-1 to triumph in the most current 2019 Food City 500 chances. But, there are six drivers using 2019 NASCAR in Bristol odds better than Hamlin, as Kyle Busch (5-2) is your preferred followed by Kyle Larson (7-1), Brad Keselowski (8-1), Joey Logano (8-1), Ryan Blaney (12-1) and Kevin Harvick (12-1). So before you make your own 2019 Food City 500 choices, see the NASCAR at Bristol predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Developed by DFS expert and SportsLine predictive information engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors such as track record and current results into consideration.

The model is off to a strong start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin that a top-four competition from the beginning. It nailed eight of the top 10 drivers in the Pennzoil 400, which included placing winner Joey Logano at its projected top five. It was also all over Kyle Busch as a leading contender in the TicketGuardian 500 and four of the drivers at McClure’s top five went on to top-five finishes in the Auto Club 400. Anybody who has followed its selections is way up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events in iconic places like Bristol Motor Speedway are in his bloodstream. His model simulated the 2019 Food City 500 10,000 times and the results were so surprising.

For Sunday, we can tell you that the version is high on Kurt Busch, who makes a strong run at the checkered flag despite heading off as a long shot 14-1 NASCAR at Bristol odds.

Busch is a six-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway and his brother, Kyle Busch (seven), has more wins in this track among busy NASCAR drivers. This comes with a victory last August in the NASCAR at Bristol race for his 30th career success in NASCAR’s top series.

The 40-year-old veteran and 2004 series champion battled his way into the front of the pack from the starting position because race and has also previously come from the 27th and 13th starting positions to succeed at Bristol. He beat Larson by 0.367 seconds last time NASCAR visited Bristol and will start 27th on Sunday. He is off to a hot start this season too, finishing in the top 10 in all but two races. He finished second at the Clash at Daytona and third in Atlanta.

And a huge shocker: Ryan Blaney, among the top Vegas favorites in 12-1, does not crack the top five. There are far better worth than the 12-1 premium he is commanding.
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